Cubicle Warrior’s UFC 219 Predictions

ufc_219_cyborg_vs-_holm_poster

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm

December 30, 2017

T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.

Cubicle Warrior’s TL;DR picks: Justino, Nurmagomedov, Diakiese, Calvillo, Condit, Rountree, Jury, Vettori, Nicolau

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Featherweight (145 lbs): Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (18-1) vs. Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm (11-3)

Based on the statistics Cyborg is better at striking and takedowns, so Holm will have her work cut out for her. Unless she can land a devastating head kick early on, Holm may get knocked out in the early rounds. Cubicle Warrior’s (safe) pick: Justino by TKO.

Justino Holm
7.83 strikes/min 3.00 strikes/min
1.00 takedowns/15 min 0.25 takedowns/15 min
52% striking accuracy 35% striking accuracy
57% takedown accuracy 18% takedown accuracy
63% striking defense 61% striking defense
95% takedown defense 78% takedown defense

Lightweight (155 lbs): Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov (24-0) vs. Edson Barboza (19-4)

In what promises to be an exciting fight, The Eagle returns after a year of battling injuries to fight the human highlight reel, Edson “No Nickname Needed” Barboza. Cubicle Warrior’s Pick: Unless Barboza lands a spinning wheel kick early on, I see The Eagle winning by submission.

Nurmagomedov Barboza
3.82 strikes/min 3.97 strikes/min
6.15 takedowns/15 min 0.59 takedowns/15 min
50% striking accuracy 41% striking accuracy
48% takedown accuracy 53% takedown accuracy
70% striking defense 64% striking defense
83% takedown defense 86% takedown defense

Lightweight (155 lbs): Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (14-6) vs. Marc “Bonecrusher” Diakiese (12-1)

Diakiese holds a slight edge in grappling. Otherwise, these fighters are evenly matched. Cubicle Warrior’s pick: Diakiese by decision.

Hooker Diakiese
4.05 strikes/min 2.41 strikes/min
0.22 takedowns/15 min 3.36 takedowns/15 min
42% striking accuracy 41% striking accuracy
25% takedown accuracy 45% takedown accuracy
56% striking defense 56% striking defense
75% takedown defense 62% takedown defense

Straw-weight (115 lbs): Cynthia Calvillo (6-0) vs. Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza (12-4)

Calvillo is undefeated and Esparza is one-dimensional. Cubicle Warrior’s pick: Calvillo by decision.

Calvillo Esparza
3.65 strikes/min 2.22 strikes/min
1.87 takedowns/15 min 4.79 takedowns/15 min
38% striking accuracy 38% striking accuracy
57% takedown accuracy 38% takedown accuracy
66% striking defense 57% striking defense
50% takedown defense 83% takedown defense

Welterweight (170 lbs): Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (30-10) vs. Neil Magny (19-6)

Condit is one of my favorite fighters, but I have been disappointed in his string of losses lately. Magny has a similar fighting style, and should serve as a litmus test of sorts to show how much Condit’s skills have deteriorated. If the Natural Born Killer still has fight left in him, then he should be able to prove it here with a victory over Magny. Cubicle Warrior’s pick: I am going to pick against the statistics and go with Condit by decision.

Condit Magny
3.78 strikes/min 3.97 strikes/min
0.59 takedowns/15 min 2.66 takedowns/15 min
39% striking accuracy 49% striking accuracy
52% takedown accuracy 46% takedown accuracy
56% striking defense 55% striking defense
39% takedown defense 59% takedown defense

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Light Heavyweight (205 lbs): Khalil “The War Horse” Rountree (7-2) vs . Michal “Lord” Oleksieijczuk (12-2)

This fight should end in a TKO. Both fighters like to bang, and neither have defense. Oleksieijczuk gets dropped multiple times in fights. Cubicle Warrior’s pick: Rountree by KO.

Rountree Oleksieijczuk
1.40 strikes/min 3.06 strikes/min
0.00 takedowns/15 min 1.58 takedowns/15 min
41% striking accuracy 53% striking accuracy
0% takedown accuracy 60% takedown accuracy
36% striking defense 69% striking defense
32% takedown defense 100% takedown defense

Featherweight (145 lbs): Myles “Fury” Jury vs. Rick “The Gladiator” Glenn

I have not watched many fights from Glenn, but Jury has been fun to watch. I will go with Jury by decision.

Jury Glenn
2.65 strikes/min 5.60 strikes/min
2.69 takedowns/15 min 1.33 takedowns/15 min
39% striking accuracy 49% striking accuracy
53% takedown accuracy 19% takedown accuracy
53% striking defense 71% striking defense
0% takedown defense 80% takedown defense

Middleweight Marvin Vettori vs. Omari Akhmedov

Toss-up. Vettori by decision.

Vettori Akhmedov
3.13 strikes/min 2.94 strikes/min
2.17 takedowns/15 min 3.41 takedowns/15 min
44% striking accuracy 34% striking accuracy
55% takedown accuracy 54% takedown accuracy
66% striking defense 57% striking defense
68% takedown defense 50% takedown defense

Flyweight (125 lbs): Louis Smolka (11-4) vs. Matheus Nicolau (12-2-1)

Smolka used to be fun to watch, but after three consecutive losses I have given up on him. Nicolau by decision.

Smolka Nicolau
3.97 strikes/min 3.06 strikes/min
1.83 takedowns/15 min 1.58 takedowns/15 min
47% striking accuracy 53% striking accuracy
35% takedown accuracy 60% takedown accuracy
52% striking defense 69% striking defense
32% takedown defense 100% takedown defense
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