When college football teams fail to meet expectations, fans tend to turn to an old stand-by: Our coach is an all right recruiter, but he just can’t coach. This is the narrative behind, for example, Will Muschamp’s downturn at Florida.
The data shows that the Florida Gators have underperformed by about 20 points normalized against poll rankings. For a team that has consistently recruited top 10 teams, it stands to reason that the recruiting would translate into top 10 rankings. The disparity between quality of athletes recruited and quality of teams coached illustrates why Muschamp was fired: be was a far better recruiter (especially on defense) than he was a coach.