Florida Gators 10, Kentucky Wildcats 9

Screen Shot 2015-09-23 at 4.37.42 PM

I had predicted a 31-20 win by the Gators, but I was pretty far off. I assumed that Kentucky was overhyped and Florida was still bumbling, but not enough for the Cats to pull ahead. Alas, the score ended up 14-9. MVG: Coach Mac, for sticking to his guns and chewing out his players on national television.

  • Kentucky Defense #102 vs Florida Offense #31: Advantage Florida.
  • Florida Defense #24 (with #3 rush Defense with 51 yds allowed!) vs Kentucky Offense #68: Advantage Florida

Now that I had time to watch the game twice, I can agree that the Gator Nation was a bit over-worried about the Gators’ performance against Kentucky:

  • The score should have been 31-9 against the best team Kentucky has fielded in a very long time.
  • Patrick Towles is the best QB the Wildcats have started in a long time. He threw for over 3000 yards in his first season as a starter, and is consistently on the SEC academic honor roll. He is the first UK QB I can recall who was a Gatorade player of the year and Parade All American (Jared Lorenzen may have been another, but I am too lazy to look it up.)
  • This Stoops-led defense is the best defense the Wildcats have placed on a field in a very long time.
  • Will Grier dropped back to pass on 36 plays, with 2 of those resulting in him being sacked, and 12 of those he was forced to scramble. The experts looked at his scrambling plays and only noticed one that he definitely should have waited and thrown to the #1 receiver. The others were justified scrambles with a bad pocket.
  • Grier had a clean pocket on 22 of 36 passing plays, and he completed 13 of 22 passing attempts. Those 12 plays without a clean pocket are where he shares the blame with the right side of the offensive line. If the coaches can fix that side of the line, Grier will likely complete 65% of his passes, and will likely increase his passing yardage 33% to something just under 200 yards a game, and the running backs should be able to more than double their running output from a paltry 65 yards per game to something closer to 150 yards per game. The analysis shows the OL only got a push on 12 of 23 running plays.
    • Passing plays: 36. Clean pocket: 22. Completions: 13.
    • Running plays: 23. Clean push: 12.
    • QB scrambles: 12.
  • In short: this Kentucky team was the best one the Gators have played in a long time, but they needed help from the referees to stay within one point of this mediocre Gator team.

Will Grier’s stats took a minor hit, which is not a good sign as the Gators head into the meat of SEC play. Last week he was #5 in the conference, #73 in the nation.

2015 Southeastern Conference Leaders

RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
1 Chad Kelly, MISS 16.0 2.7 -1.1 0.7 18.3 91 90.6 92.3
2 Brandon Harris, LSU 2.8 6.1 -0.3 0.3 8.9 48 87.8 90.7
3 Greyson Lambert, UGA 12.7 0.0 -1.3 0.0 11.5 72 84.2 89.6
4 Dak Prescott, MSST 18.8 4.5 -3.7 -0.2 19.2 131 76.4 78.5
5 Brandon Allen, ARK 21.9 0.8 0.0 -0.7 22.0 113 84.6 77.9
6 Jake Coker, ALA 7.8 4.0 -2.5 1.0 10.2 115 66.4 76.4
7 Kyle Allen, TA&M 10.6 4.4 -5.7 0.2 9.4 96 67.8 69.2
8 Joshua Dobbs, TENN 8.7 1.8 -3.2 1.0 8.3 111 61.3 53.9
9 Will Grier, FLA 4.8 4.1 -2.8 0.1 6.3 83 60.0 52.7
10 Patrick Towles, UK 2.4 5.8 -6.2 0.1 2.1 114 42.9 51.4
RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
11 Maty Mauk, MIZ 1.2 5.5 -2.6 0.5 4.6 112 49.5 44.7
12 Jeremy Johnson, AUB 5.1 -0.7 -1.5 -0.4 2.5 103 45.7 42.3
13 Johnny McCrary, VAN 5.8 -1.9 -2.9 0.2 1.2 151 40.3 36.7

The Gators have the #18 defense, again, with the SEC gauntlet coming up. This is good enough for #3 in the conference behind LSU and Missouri.

RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
1 Boston College 319 106 207 69.0 112 37.3 17 5.7
2 Appalachian State 564 282 388 194.0 176 88.0 41 20.5
3 NC State 565 188 412 137.3 153 51.0 35 11.7
4 West Virginia 596 298 309 154.5 287 143.5 17 8.5
5 Kent State 597 199 397 132.3 200 66.7 75 25.0
6 LSU 638 319 435 217.5 203 101.5 40 20.0
7 Missouri 641 214 336 112.0 305 101.7 29 9.7
8 Ohio State 675 225 357 119.0 318 106.0 37 12.3
9 Louisiana Monroe 695 348 293 146.5 402 201.0 51 25.5
10 Northwestern 705 235 373 124.3 332 110.7 16 5.3
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
11 Baylor 709 355 333 166.5 376 188.0 52 26.0
12 Michigan 710 237 432 144.0 278 92.7 38 12.7
13 Duke 728 243 448 149.3 280 93.3 26 8.7
14 Navy 730 365 452 226.0 278 139.0 31 15.5
15 Houston 736 368 637 318.5 99 49.5 55 27.5
16 Wake Forest 761 254 375 125.0 386 128.7 47 15.7
17 Florida State 769 256 349 116.3 420 140.0 30 10.0
18 Florida 774 258 608 202.7 166 55.3 46 15.3
19 Clemson 782 261 438 146.0 344 114.7 37 12.3
20 Washington 803 268 524 174.7 279 93.0 33 11.0

The Gator offense is hovering around #70, #9 in the conference. Oddly enough, the Gators are behind ECU and NM State in total offense!

RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
1 Bowling Green 1828 609 1367 455.7 461 153.7 119 39.7
2 Tulsa 1821 607 1172 390.7 649 216.3 125 41.7
3 TCU 1796 599 1103 367.7 693 231.0 149 49.7
4 Texas Tech 1771 590 1197 399.0 574 191.3 163 54.3
5 Arizona 1754 585 791 263.7 963 321.0 163 54.3
6 Cincinnati 1738 579 1030 343.3 708 236.0 115 38.3
7 Memphis 1711 570 958 319.3 753 251.0 162 54.0
8 Ole Miss 1702 567 1057 352.3 645 215.0 192 64.0
Oregon 1702 567 783 261.0 919 306.3 150 50.0
10 California 1689 563 1060 353.3 629 209.7 153 51.0
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
11 USC 1673 558 1049 349.7 624 208.0 145 48.3
Indiana 1673 558 938 312.7 735 245.0 122 40.7
13 Oklahoma 1660 553 1113 371.0 547 182.3 124 41.3
14 Louisiana Tech 1618 539 1051 350.3 567 189.0 133 44.3
15 Middle Tennessee 1575 525 931 310.3 644 214.7 153 51.0
16 Rice 1567 522 749 249.7 818 272.7 122 40.7
17 Texas State 1540 513 811 270.3 729 243.0 129 43.0
Southern Mississippi 1540 513 919 306.3 621 207.0 124 41.3
19 Alabama 1537 512 864 288.0 673 224.3 109 36.3
20 Oklahoma State 1531 510 992 330.7 539 179.7 125 41.7
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
21 Duke 1512 504 841 280.3 671 223.7 102 34.0
22 Baylor 1508 754 796 398.0 712 356.0 122 61.0
23 Nebraska 1468 489 931 310.3 537 179.0 109 36.3
24 Mississippi State 1467 489 944 314.7 523 174.3 115 38.3
25 Texas A&M 1463 488 782 260.7 681 227.0 138 46.0
26 Georgia Tech 1461 487 330 110.0 1131 377.0 156 52.0
27 Notre Dame 1444 481 762 254.0 682 227.3 102 34.0
28 Florida Atlantic 1442 481 814 271.3 628 209.3 79 26.3
29 Georgia 1433 478 663 221.0 770 256.7 134 44.7
30 UCLA 1431 477 710 236.7 721 240.3 95 31.7
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
31 Arkansas 1429 476 916 305.3 513 171.0 84 28.0
32 Miami (FL) 1416 472 863 287.7 553 184.3 125 41.7
33 Colorado State 1412 471 805 268.3 607 202.3 109 36.3
34 Georgia State 1405 468 989 329.7 416 138.7 82 27.3
35 Western Kentucky 1403 468 1134 378.0 269 89.7 90 30.0
36 Ball State 1400 467 653 217.7 747 249.0 99 33.0
37 Air Force 1393 464 292 97.3 1101 367.0 121 40.3
38 Northern Illinois 1378 459 829 276.3 549 183.0 108 36.0
39 North Carolina 1374 458 697 232.3 677 225.7 114 38.0
Virginia Tech 1374 458 709 236.3 665 221.7 117 39.0
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
41 Wake Forest 1356 452 936 312.0 420 140.0 75 25.0
42 Washington State 1348 449 1088 362.7 260 86.7 85 28.3
43 Ohio 1331 444 782 260.7 549 183.0 101 33.7
44 NC State 1328 443 622 207.3 706 235.3 122 40.7
45 Clemson 1326 442 762 254.0 564 188.0 110 36.7
Vanderbilt 1326 442 906 302.0 420 140.0 73 24.3
47 SMU 1321 440 667 222.3 654 218.0 89 29.7
48 Tennessee 1305 435 567 189.0 738 246.0 138 46.0
49 BYU 1297 432 932 310.7 365 121.7 91 30.3
50 Boise State 1296 432 703 234.3 593 197.7 92 30.7
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
51 Florida State 1294 431 652 217.3 642 214.0 107 35.7
52 Florida Intl 1287 429 785 261.7 502 167.3 76 25.3
53 Central Michigan 1275 425 1023 341.0 252 84.0 71 23.7
54 Colorado 1274 425 544 181.3 730 243.3 95 31.7
55 Arizona State 1271 424 799 266.3 472 157.3 86 28.7
56 New Mexico State 1270 423 866 288.7 404 134.7 92 30.7
57 Eastern Michigan 1269 423 714 238.0 555 185.0 99 33.0
Iowa 1269 423 694 231.3 575 191.7 89 29.7
59 Western Michigan 1263 421 983 327.7 280 93.3 93 31.0
60 Purdue 1259 420 680 226.7 579 193.0 93 31.0
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
61 South Alabama 1251 417 767 255.7 484 161.3 76 25.3
62 San José State 1250 417 711 237.0 539 179.7 80 26.7
63 Arkansas State 1242 414 597 199.0 645 215.0 96 32.0
64 Illinois 1241 414 733 244.3 508 169.3 110 36.7
65 Idaho 1240 413 871 290.3 369 123.0 78 26.0
66 Rutgers 1235 412 703 234.3 532 177.3 100 33.3
67 Ohio State 1233 411 530 176.7 703 234.3 100 33.3
68 Maryland 1231 410 620 206.7 611 203.7 112 37.3
69 Florida 1224 408 714 238.0 510 170.0 106 35.3
70 Stanford 1205 402 795 265.0 410 136.7 78 26.0
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