Cubicle Warrior’s Picks – UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen

UFC 159: Saturday April 27, 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey. Main card: 10 PM EDT (7 PM PDT)

Jon “Bones” Jones (champion) vs Chael “American Gangster” Sonnen (Light Heavyweight Championship). Chael Sonnen has no chance in this fight. Everything that Sonne does, Jon Jones does better–wrestling, striking, takedowns, takedown defense–you name it. The smack talking is getting old, and it is time to back up the smack talk. Obvious pick: Bones Jones via 2nd round submission (possibly TKO).

Michael “Count” Bisping vs Alan “The Talent” Belcher (Middleweight bout). Bisping has been on the decline recently with losses to Vitor Belfort, Chael Sonnen, Wanderlei Silva, and Dan Henderson overshadowing his wins over Brian Stann and Yoshihiro Sexyama, but I expect him to win by decision over Belcher. Belcher’s only decent victory of note in the past four years has been a submission win over Patrick Cote in 2010. Cubicle Warrior’s Pick: Bisping by decision.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson vs Cheick “I look like that Djimon Hounsou from ‘Never Back Down’” Kongo (Heavyweight bout). These two fighters are total opposites in every way possible. Never count out Big Country in a fight, and never count out Kongo’s ability to underperform in a fight. Kongo will either knock out his opponent in 10 seconds or get knocked out by his opponent sometime after 10 seconds. I expect Kongo to underestimate Big Country and let him land on overhand right on the jaw for a 2nd-round KO.

The rest of the fights I really do not care about:

• Phil Davis vs. Vinny Magalhaes (Light Heavyweight). This will be a contest between two grapplers whose skills nullify one another. The winner will be the one with more mix to his mixed martial arts. Phil Davis has a very slight edge if this goes into a stand-up fight.
  
• Jim Miller vs. Pat Healy (Lightweight). Miller is a dangerous grappler that nearly went toe-to-toe with Benson Henderson in 2011. I foresee a submission victory in the 2nd round.

Here are the undercard bouts:

• Rustam Khabilov over Yancy Medeiros by 2nd-round TKO  (Lightweight). Khabilov has some impressive KOs. Check them out on YouTube. Besides, his opponent’s name is Yancy.
• Ovince St-Preux over Gian Villante by decision (Light Heavyweight). Interesting note: both of these guys played linebacker in college football. I give the slight edge to St-Preux for being an SEC alumnus.
• Sara McMann over Sheila Gaff by decision (Bantamweight). Amer-cuh! **** yeah! Actually, the German girl can be quite vicious. The American had better have her head in the game.
• Johnny Bedford over Bryan Caraway by 3rd-round submission. I really know nothing of these two guys, but Bedford seems to have more diversity in his wins.
• Cody McKenzie over Leonard Garcia by early submission. Garcia used to be fun to watch, but his wild swings and suspect grappling game have made him everyone else’s stepping stone.
• James Head over Nick Catone by decision. I just pulled a name out of a dark, smelly place.
• Kurt Holobaugh over Steven Siler by decision. Same thing.

Cubicle Warrior’s picks – UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche

UFC 157: Dana White’s New Hope

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche. Anaheim, CA. Main Card (PPV at 9 p.m. CST)(Yes, I still think in Central Standard Time.)

Ronda “Rowdy” Rousey (6-0-0) vs. Liz “Girlrilla” Carmouche (7-2-0), 135-lb Women’s Bantamweight Championship
If Liz Carmouche can stay on her feet, she will take down the golden girl of women’s MMA. Don’t count out the former Marine. The problem is that if she wins, it throws a big monkeywrench into women’s MMA. Dana White is counting on Rousey winning, pulling in Miesha Tate or Sara McMann and building up women’s MMA off of Rousey. If Carmouche wins, then Cyborg Santos will need definitely need to drop ten pounds and save women’s MMA. I think Ronda Rousey will save women’s MMA and pull off the win. Carmouche has been preparing for the arm bar against second-rate arm bar practitioners. Rousey has been practicing the arm bar on Olympic-level judokas. Carmouche is a rough-and-tumble brawler with little else to add to her repertoire. Practicing for the arm bar with a bunch of amateurs will not help her. Meanwhile, Rousey has been training with two renowned boxing coaches as well, Edward Taverdyan and Lucia Rijker. Maybe this fight will go into the second round, but I still do not see Carmouche emerging with her arm intact. Given Rousey’s additional boxing training, Carmouche may even have a bloody nose to boot.

Lyoto “the Dragon” Machida (18-3-0) vs. Dan “Hendo” Henderson (29-8-0), 205-lb LHW
Even at the age of 142 I think Hendo still has some gas in the tank. This should be a good fight. Personally I like Machida, but I think Hendo will prevail. Hendo depends on his overhand H-bomb to tag opponents that he cannot out-wrestle. Machida is elusive and can counterpunch out of the H-bomb, but with losses to similar style fighters such as Rampage Jackson, Mauricio Rua, and Bones Jones, I am not sure that Machida will be able to run around the ring forever waiting on a counterpunch.

Urijah “the kid from the suckiest state in the nation” Faber (26-6-0) vs. Ivan “the Pride of El Salvador” Menjivar (25-9-0), 135-lb BW
I think Urijah is past his prime. He is still a damn good fighter but at this point in his career Menjivar will be to much for him. I think Faber is 0-4 when wearing his hair in corn rows. If the California Kid loses again, he may not have anymore divisions to hide out in. Jose Aldo destroyed him at 145. Dominick Cruz destroyed him at 135. I suppose he could shave off his hair and drop ten pounds, only to get destroyed by Demetrious Johnson at 125. I have not seen any improvement in Mr. Butt Face’s game since he was destroyed by Mike Brown. Twice.

Josh “I couldn’t think of a better nickname other than Koz” Koscheck (19-6-0) vs. Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler (19-9-0, 1 NC), 170-lb WW
The only I picked Lawler is that I do not like Koschek. I might be wrong on this one. More than likely, Koz will wear down Lawler. Ruthless will need to be ruthless early in the fight and go for a quick KO, just as Paulo Thiago at UFC 95 did in 2009. If the fight goes into the second and third rounds, Koz will likely wear down Lawler and win by decision. I dislike Koz enough to throw away this pick.

Court “the Crusher” McGee (13-3-0) vs. Josh “the Dentist” Neer (33-12-1), 170-lb WW
McGee is coming down 15 pounds to rearrange the Dentist’s face in this loser-goes-home bout. Neither fighter has been impressive lately. Perhaps the Crusher will find a new home in this weight division.

Undercard (FX at 7 p.m. CST)

Brendan Schaub vs. Lavar Johnson, 240-lb HW
Johnson is one of the hardest hitters in MMA. Schaub is looking pretty weak lately. Look for a KO from Johnson.

Michael Chiesa vs. Anton Kuivanen, 155-lb LW
Chiesa is 8-0, all by submission. Look for him to get a SOTN.

Dennis Bermudez vs. Matt Grice, 145-lb FW
Bermudez is another submission artist. Look for him to compete for SOTN.

Sam Stout vs. Caros Fodor, 155-lb LW
Do you remember when Sam Stout was good? I barely remember those days. Look for him to regain some former glory with a win over Fodor.

Undercard (Facebook at 5:35 p.m. CST)(All fights are 170-lb welterweight.)

Kenny Robertson vs. Brock Jardine. I won’t lie. I just flipped a coin on this one.

Jon Manley vs. Neil Magny. When in doubt, pick the black guy.

Nah-Shon Burrell vs. Yuri Villefort. Same rule as above.

Cubicle Warrior’s picks – UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche

UFC 157: Dana White’s New Hope

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche. Anaheim, CA. Main Card (PPV at 9 p.m. CST)(Yes, I still think in Central Standard Time.)

Ronda “Rowdy” Rousey (6-0-0) vs. Liz “Girlrilla” Carmouche (7-2-0), 135-lb Women’s Bantamweight Championship
If Liz Carmouche can stay on her feet, she will take down the golden girl of women’s MMA. Don’t count out the former Marine. The problem is that if she wins, it throws a big monkeywrench into women’s MMA. Dana White is counting on Rousey winning, pulling in Miesha Tate or Sara McMann and building up women’s MMA off of Rousey. If Carmouche wins, then Cyborg Santos will need definitely need to drop ten pounds and save women’s MMA. I think Ronda Rousey will save women’s MMA and pull off the win. Carmouche has been preparing for the arm bar against second-rate arm bar practitioners. Rousey has been practicing the arm bar on Olympic-level judokas. Carmouche is a rough-and-tumble brawler with little else to add to her repertoire. Practicing for the arm bar with a bunch of amateurs will not help her. Meanwhile, Rousey has been training with two renowned boxing coaches as well, Edward Taverdyan and Lucia Rijker. Maybe this fight will go into the second round, but I still do not see Carmouche emerging with her arm intact. Given Rousey’s additional boxing training, Carmouche may even have a bloody nose to boot.

Lyoto “the Dragon” Machida (18-3-0) vs. Dan “Hendo” Henderson (29-8-0), 205-lb LHW
Even at the age of 142 I think Hendo still has some gas in the tank. This should be a good fight. Personally I like Machida, but I think Hendo will prevail. Hendo depends on his overhand H-bomb to tag opponents that he cannot out-wrestle. Machida is elusive and can counterpunch out of the H-bomb, but with losses to similar style fighters such as Rampage Jackson, Mauricio Rua, and Bones Jones, I am not sure that Machida will be able to run around the ring forever waiting on a counterpunch.

Urijah “the kid from the suckiest state in the nation” Faber (26-6-0) vs. Ivan “the Pride of El Salvador” Menjivar (25-9-0), 135-lb BW
I think Urijah is past his prime. He is still a damn good fighter but at this point in his career Menjivar will be to much for him. I think Faber is 0-4 when wearing his hair in corn rows. If the California Kid loses again, he may not have anymore divisions to hide out in. Jose Aldo destroyed him at 145. Dominick Cruz destroyed him at 135. I suppose he could shave off his hair and drop ten pounds, only to get destroyed by Demetrious Johnson at 125. I have not seen any improvement in Mr. Butt Face’s game since he was destroyed by Mike Brown. Twice.

Josh “I couldn’t think of a better nickname other than Koz” Koscheck (19-6-0) vs. Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler (19-9-0, 1 NC), 170-lb WW
The only I picked Lawler is that I do not like Koschek. I might be wrong on this one. More than likely, Koz will wear down Lawler. Ruthless will need to be ruthless early in the fight and go for a quick KO, just as Paulo Thiago at UFC 95 did in 2009. If the fight goes into the second and third rounds, Koz will likely wear down Lawler and win by decision. I dislike Koz enough to throw away this pick.

Court “the Crusher” McGee (13-3-0) vs. Josh “the Dentist” Neer (33-12-1), 170-lb WW
McGee is coming down 15 pounds to rearrange the Dentist’s face in this loser-goes-home bout. Neither fighter has been impressive lately. Perhaps the Crusher will find a new home in this weight division.

Undercard (FX at 7 p.m. CST)

Brendan Schaub vs. Lavar Johnson, 240-lb HW
Johnson is one of the hardest hitters in MMA. Schaub is looking pretty weak lately. Look for a KO from Johnson.

Michael Chiesa vs. Anton Kuivanen, 155-lb LW
Chiesa is 8-0, all by submission. Look for him to get a SOTN.

Dennis Bermudez vs. Matt Grice, 145-lb FW
Bermudez is another submission artist. Look for him to compete for SOTN.

Sam Stout vs. Caros Fodor, 155-lb LW
Do you remember when Sam Stout was good? I barely remember those days. Look for him to regain some former glory with a win over Fodor.

Undercard (Facebook at 5:35 p.m. CST)(All fights are 170-lb welterweight.)

Kenny Robertson vs. Brock Jardine. I won’t lie. I just flipped a coin on this one.

Jon Manley vs. Neil Magny. When in doubt, pick the black guy.

Nah-Shon Burrell vs. Yuri Villefort. Same rule as above.

Cubicle Warrior’s UFC 155: Dos Santos – Velasquez 2 Picks

UFC 155: Dos Santos – Velasquez 2

UFC 155: Dos Santos – Velasquez 2

MGM Grand Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Saturday, December 29, 2012. Facebook fights start at 3:30 PM PST, FX fights start at 5:00 PM PST, and PPV fights start at 7:00 PM.

265 lbs.: Junior dos Santos (15-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (10-1). Their first fight lasted 64 whole seconds. Velasquez fans will say that he tore his ACL two weeks before the fight. Dos Santos fans will counter with the fact that JDS tore his meniscus two weeks before the fight. No matter how you slice it, JDS beat the **** out of Velasquez in their first meeting. JDS is a dynamic striker with excellent take-downs. Velasquez showed that he was back by beating Bigfoot Silva with a very vanilla attack, but it will take more than vanilla to beat JDS. Perhaps it will take vanilla, chocolate, and bacon to beat JDS. Mmmm. Bacon. I see another KTFO by JDS–maybe not in 64 seconds, but it’s coming nonetheless. FOTN

Post script: Cain Velasquez regained the heavyweight title by unanimous decision. Cain dismantled JDS early the match. It took three rounds before JDS recovered from being rattled early in the fight.

155 lbs.: Joe Lauzon (22-7) vs. Jim Miller (21-4). On paper, this fight should end with a 1st round submission or KO by overhand right. Jim Miller’s four losses come from the best of the division: Frankie Edgar (RF:14), Gray Maynard (UFC 96), Ben Henderson (UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle), and Nate Diaz (UFC on Fox: Pothead Punk versus Miller). Joe Lauzon has KTFO’d or subbed some of the best fighters around: Jens Pulver (UFC 63), Melvin Guillard (UFC 136), and Jamie Varner (UFC on Fox: Rua vs Vera). Then again, Lauzon has also been beaten by some very pedestrian fighters. I give the slight edge to Miller in this one, especially if the fight goes on past the 1st round.

Post script: Jim Miller defeated Joe Lauzon via unanimous decision in the Fight of the Night. Miller nearly punched Lauzon’s eyeball out of socket. Miller’s knees and elbows from the clench rearranged Lauzon’s face, but give Lauzon some credit for staying upright the entire fight.

185 lbs.: Tim Boetsch (16-4) vs. Constantinos Philippou (11-2). Tim Boetsch has three losses at 205 lbs, but he is 4-0 at middleweight. Phillipou is the cleaner striker, but has not fought anyone as large or as durable as Boetsch. I give a slight edge to Boetsch.

Post script: Philippou beat the snot out of Boetsch and TKO’d him in round 3.

185 lbs.: Alan Belcher (18-6) vs. Yushin Okami (27-7). This is a rematch of UFC 62, when a 22-year old Belcher lost in his UFC debut. Now that Belcher is six years older and has twice as many victories under his belt, including signature a SOTN win over Denis Kang at UFC 93, a FOTN victory over Wilson Gouveia at catchweight of 195 lbs in UFC 107, and a SOTN win over Patrick Cote in UFC 113. Belcher has a four-fight win streak, and has been looking better each fight. It appears that Okami has become gun shy since Anderson Silva beat the snot out him at UFC 134. Look for Belcher to win this one, probably by decision, but hopefully by TKO.

Post script: Ukami checks in with another snoozer decision.

185 lbs.: Derek Brunson (9-2) vs. Chris Leben (22-8). I used to love watching Chris Leben swim through punches just to KO Wanderlei Silva (UFC 132), KOTN Allesio Sakara (UFC 82), and KOTN Jorge Santiago (UFC Fight Night 6). I think all the drugs and repeated punches to the noggin are taking a toll on Leben. He has been on a year-long suspension due to drug abuse, so I would imagine that this fight will be a little rusty for Leben. Brunson is not a scary fighter–he is coming off two successive losses. I think this will come down to a decision, probably in Leben’s favor. Barely.

Post script: This was a garbage fight. Leben needs to stop sucking.

On the FX Preliminary Card, I think it will go this way (not that I care about any of these guys other than Varner and Guillard):

• Bantamweight Brad Picket (22-6) over Eddie Wineland (19-8-1)
• Bantamweight Erik Perez (12-4) over Byron Bloodworth (6-2)
• Lightweight Jamie Varner (20-7-1) over Melvin Guillard (30-11-2)
• Lightweight Myles Jury (10-0) over Michael Johnson (12-6)

On the Facebook Preliminary Card, I will toss up a coin:

• Heavyweight Phil De Fries over Todd Duffee (just because I like the name “De Fries”) KOTN
• Featherweight Leonard Garcia over Max Holloway (just because Garcia is a fun Rock ‘Em, Sock ‘Em fighter)
• Flyweight John Moraga over Chris Cariaso (no idea who either of these guys are, but the toss-up pointed to Moraga). SOTN

Post script: I went I went 1-4 in the main card picks, I went 1-2 with the Facebook prelim picks, and 3-1 with the FX undercard picks. The Miller-Lauzon fight was my favorite of the night. The first two rounds of the Dos Santos-Velasquez fight was great. I had hoped that Cain would have avenged his 64-second KO with a KO of his own, but he let Junior zombie around the ring for three more rounds. Average PPV event.

Cubicle Warrior’s UFC 154 Picks

UFC 154

Welterweight (170 lb) Title Unification Bout – Georges Saint-Pierre (22-2 MMA, 16-2 UFC) vs Carlos Condit (28-5 MMA, 5-1 UFC)

GSP has been out of the ring for 19 months. Will he have ring rust? I think so. Condit is the Natural Born Killer. His only UFC loss was in his UFC debut. Since then, Condit has KO’d Rory MacDonald (FOTN), Dan Hardy (KOTN), and Kim Dong Hyun (KOTN). His decision over Nick Diaz was so-so, but it earned him the interim welterweight title. Will Condit continue to wear the belt after UFC 154, or will he just be keeping it warm for GSP’s return? I like GSP a lot, but his last few victories have all been via split decision, and he has been injured. His last good fight was in 2009, when he KO’d BJ Penn to defend his welterweight title. I see GSP fighting through the rust and earning a hard-fought decision.

Welterweight bout – Martin Kampmann (20-5) vs Johny Hendricks (13-1)

Dutch fighter Kampmann has victories over Jake Ellenberger (KOTN), Thiago Alves (FOTN), and Rick Story following a loss against Diego Sanchez and Jake Shields. American fighter Hendricks has victories over Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch (KOTN, 12-second KO), and two nobodies named Pierce and Waldburger (KOTN). His last loss was to Rick Story before those wins. Neither is a standout fighter, so I will root for the American, hopefully via KO.

Middleweight (185 lb) bout – Francis Carmont (19-7) vs Tom Lawlor (8-4-1)

The French-Canadian Carmont has rattled off 8 successive wins against nobodies, but has turned in some good submission victories. Lawlor, on the other hand, has been up and down in his middleweight bouts, alternating wins and losses. His notable victories are against Jason MacDonald, Patrick Cote, and CB Dollaway. His losses have come against a mix of good and average fighters. I think Carmont will submit Lawlor for the win.

Middleweight bout – Nick Ring (13-1) vs Costa Phillipou (11-2)

Canadian fighter Nick Ring’s only loss has come against Tim Boetsch. I really cannot name any of the fighters that Ring has beaten. Greek Cypriot fighter Costa Phillipou’s only UFC loss came in a catchweight bout at 195, and his victories have looked much like Ring’s. Phillipou’s striking us much cleaner than Ring’s, so I expect a late TKO from the Greek.

Featherweight (145 lb) bout – Mark Hominick (20-11) vs Pablo Garza (11-3)

Canadian fighter Mark Hominick is as tough as they come. He has looked good in victory and defeat, and has shown that he can take a pounding just as well as Kobe Tai does in her Adam and Eve films. He needs to win this one to avoid a 4-match losing streak. American fighter Pablo Garza has some good submission wins, and some ugly submission losses. I can see this fight going either way, but I will look for a decision win from Hominick to avoid getting cut by the UFC.

Preliminary bouts (FX and Facebook)

• Middleweight bout on FX – Patrick Cote over Alessio Sakara via TKO. Both of these fighters used to be on the main card at one time. These has-beens need to turn in a good fight in order to get back to the main card. I think we may see a good KO in the first round.
• Light heavyweight bout on FX – Cyrille Diabate over Chad Griggs via TKO. Diabate has a kickboxing win over Michael Bisping, and decent losses against Mauricio Rua and Alexander Gustafsson. This is Griggs’ debut at light heavyweight. Look for Diabate to knock Griggs back to the fatty division.
• Lightweight bout on FX – Mark Bocek over Rafael dos Anjos via decision. Both of these fighters have losses against good fighters, but neither have notable victories. I see a decision here. Flip a coin. I pick the American. Ameri-cuh! **** yeah!
• Lightweight bout on FX – Sam Stout over John Makdessi via decision. Sam Stout used to be a stud in the WEC. He has been on both ends of the FOTN and KOTN honors. Makdessi missed weight in two successive fights. Look for Stout to grind out a boring decision win over Makdessi. Place a bet as to whether or not Makdessi makes weight.
• Featherweight bout – Antonio Carvalho over Rodrigo Damm via decision.
• Bantamweight bout – Ivan Menjivar over Azamat Gashimov via TKO.
• Middleweight bout – Matt Riddle over John Maguire via decision.
• Featherweight bout – Darren Elkins over Steven Siler via decision.

Random thought: I cannot wait until I see Ronda Rousey snapping some poor girl’s arm again! Look for her to fight sometime this spring, assuming the UFC can find some sucker female fighter to take her on. How about a rematch with Miesha Tate?

Welcome to the UFC, Ronda Rousey!

ESPN.com: Silva uses knee to stop Bonnar

 

“Silva uses knee to stop Bonnar” is located at http://espn.go.com/mma/story/_/id/8482874/ufc-153-anderson-silva-bombs-stephan-bonnar-round-1

 

UFC 152

In some exciting MMA action over my birthday weekend, Jon Jones survived an armbar from Vitor Belfort to retain the light heavyweight title, but he did look vulnerable against a smaller light heavyweight. Fighting off the armbar attempt may have forced some nerve damage, but we all know Jones is a tough guy and we expect no less.

Demetrious Johnson won the battle of the Energize Bunnies against Joseph Benevidez. I expected Benevidez to win this one, but I formulated that expectation before seeing how much faster Johnson was than Benevidez.

Michael Bisping is a lot easier to watch now that he has learned to just shut up and fight. He defeated one of my favorite fighters, Brian Stann, in convincing fashion. At one time I had given up on Stann because he was too predictable. It appears that Bisping agreed and took advantage of Stann’s predictability in a decision win over the All American.

Matt Hammill needs to go back to retirement. He looked slow in his non-loss over his sacrificial lamb.

Jackson MMA Academy standout Cub Swanson scored the KOTN by downing Charles Oliveira.

No big surprises here. I did not post any fight predictions, but I probably would have picked Stann to beat Bisping.

References: The Score and Sherdog.

 

Cubicle Warrior’s UFC on Fox 4 Picks

My picks: Shogun, Dragon, Varner, Quick

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (20-6) vs. Brandon “the Truth” Vera (12-5). I love watching Vera and his Muay Thai. He has the tools to beat Shogun, but he seems to gas out by round 2. Vera has not had an exciting win over anyone notable since his 2006 TKO of Frank Mir. Since 2006, Vera has been beating nobodies (Mike Patt? Reese Andy?), getting beat by somebodies (Jon Jones, Randy Couture, and an overturned loss to Thiago Silva), and struggling with decent fighters (Krzysztof Soszynski). Shogun on the other hand has been beating some good fighters (Forrest Griffin, Lyota Machida) in addition to getting beat by good fighters (Dan Henderson, Jon Jones). Vera is not in the same class as the fighters that have beaten Shogun. I predict a long, drawn out fight with a decision in Shogun’s favor.

Lyoto Machida (17-3) vs. Ryan Bader (14-2). I like watching Machida and his more traditional martial arts style. I am not a big fan of Bader’s somewhat boring wrestling/clinch style. Initially I was impressed by Bader’s win over Rampage Jackson, but after I reviewed the video I just saw that he took advantage of an overweight, out of shape, and unfocused Rampage. Bader has not had a quality win since 2010. Machida has quality wins over Randy Couture in 2011 and Mauricio Rua in 2009, with losses to very good fighters in between. I have a feeling Machida is a lot closer to being at his peak than Bader is. Others have called an upset Bader win, but I have not seen any marked improvement in Bader’s game. The only thing going in Bader’s favor for this match is that Bader’s weakness is submission defense, and Machida does not do submissions. In a stand-up game, Bader can pull the upset, but I do not see this happening.

Joe Lauzon (20-7) vs. Jamie Varner (20-6-1). Welcome back, Jamie Varner. I loved watching this guy on WEC. I think he has improved a lot since WEC with wins against Edson Barboza (Edson Friggin’ Barboza!) and Drew Fickett while Lauzon has been up and down with a loss to Anthony Pettis balancing out submission wins against Melvin Guillard, Gabe Ruediger, and Jeremy Stephens. Granted, Varner was on the decline between 2010 and 2011, but I think he has a renewed dedication to the sport and will pound out Joe Lauzon.

Mike Swick (14-4) vs. DaMarques Johnson (15-10). Despite the 2-year break, I think Mike Quick Swick is ready to do his KOs under 1 minute. I liked watching DaMarques on The Ultimate Fighter, but he has not beaten anyone notable in the UFC, nor has he lived up to his potential. I see a Swick victory, hopefully in under one minute.

 

Cubicle Warrior’s UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen II Picks

Cubicle Warrior’s picks for the July 7th fight: Silva, Cote, Griffin, Kim, and Mendes.

Chael Sonnen vs Anderson Silva, Middleweight Championship. In a rematch of UFC 117, Chael Sonnen seems to be the only human capable of defeating the Spider. Sonnen was laying the smackdown on Silva that night, landing 320 strikes and leading on all the scorecards against Silva only to lose at 1:50 of the final round due to submission. Sonnen has lost 8 of 11 fights due to submission, and I doubt he learned a lot of submission defense since UFC 117. I expect Silva to be smarter about absorbing strikes from Sonnen this time around, and I expect him to use his superior grappling to once again take out the cocky Sonnen.

Cung Le vs Patrick Cote. Le looked old as dirt in his UFC debut and loss against Wanderlei Silva. Patrick Cote’s last UFC match was a loss, but he has been riding a four-fight win streak in other organizations. I expect Cote’s cardio to carry him past the point where the older Le will be able to move his wheelchair around the ring. I liked watching Cung Le’s amazing striking back in the age of the dinosaurs, but I foresee an ugly loss for him in this one.

Forrest Griffin vs Tito Ortiz. Both of these guys looked like crap in their latest outings. Forrest just is not getting any better, and Tito is too injured to regain his former glory. I expect Forrest to suck less and win this match.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Demian Maia. Maia looked impressive in earlier fights, but has petered out lately. It may be even more difficult in his first fight at 170. Kim, on the other hand, has looked good in most of his fights. Other than his overturned loss to Parysan and his KO loss to Condit, he has shown that he can take some of the best fighters to a decision.

Chad Mendes vs Cody McKenzie. Chad Mendes would probably remain undefeated in his division if it were not for Jose Aldo. McKenzie is no Aldo, so I do not expect much from McKenzie. This fight will be a battle of the lay-and-pray wrestler vs the submission artist. I foresee the wrestler and Urijah Faber training partner, Mendes, coming out on top.

Related articles

• Cubicle Warrior’s UFC 117 Picks, August 6, 2010 (walterkilar.wordpress.com)
• Cubicle Warrior’s UFC 126 Picks, February 1, 2011 (walterkilar.wordpress.com)
• Cubicle Warrior’s UFC 134 Picks, August 26, 2011 (walterkilar.wordpress.com)
• Cubicle Warrior’s UFC 136 Picks, October 8, 2011 (walterkilar.wordpress.com)

UFC 145 – Jones vs. Evans

Cubicle Warrior picks: Jones, MacDonald, Rothwell, McDonald, Hominick, and Bocek.

Rashad Evans (17-1-1) vs. Jon “Bones” Jones (15-1)
This should be FOTN. Both LHW fighters were friends who trained together at one time, but Bones has been evolving more than Sugar. Edge: Bones. Physically, Bones is faster and taller than Sugar. Sugar has weathered some tough fights and has beaten built heavily favored fighters, so do not discount the veteran. If Bones can explode on Sugar, it will be lights out. If Sugar can draw the fight out, it could go to decision in his favor. Cubicle Warrior pick: Jon “Bones” Jones by TKO. I want an explosive fight, so it follows that I want Bones to win, no disrespect to Sugar.

Rory MacDonald (12-1) vs. Che Mills (14-4)
Rory is a well rounded fighter and  traditional boxer. Mills has raw speed and dangerous striking ability, but has four losses due to lack of patience.  I will pick the patient, well rounded fighter over the explosive striker in this case. Cubicle Warrior pick: MacDonald by decision.

Brendan Schaub (9-2) vs. Ben Rothwell (31-8)
This heavyweight fight should come down Rothwell’s takedowns. If Schaub can avoid them and pound Rothwell in the face, he wins. If not, he notches his 9th win. Schaub never really impressed me. Cubicle Warrior pick: Rothwell by decision.

Miguel Angel Torres (39-4) vs. Michael McDonald (14-1)
Both fighters possess knockout power, but McDonald can adapt to various fighters. Torres has some disappointing fights since the transition from WEC to UFC, and has been exposed. I hate to pick against one of my favorites, but I have to go with the upstart McDonald in this one.

Mark “the Machine” Hominick (20-10) vs. Eddie “the Filipino Phenom” Yagin (15-5-1)
I love watching the machine-like aggression and tenacity from Hominick, but I like watching Yagin’s submissions as well. Hominick is crafty enough to evade Yagin’s guillotine. Cubicle Warrior pick: Hominick by decision.

John Alessio vs. Mark Bocek
Bocek will wear down Alessio with takedowns and keep him on the defense the entire fight. Cubicle Warrior pick: Bocek.